Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Decouplists - Gone but Not Forgotten

Today is certainly not a time to speak about the strength of the "decoupling theory" or any other concept that rests its laurels on the rise of domestic growth in the developing world. 

However, although the "Decouplists" might be in hiding due to their overly optimistic (some would claim naive) assertions that domestic growth would come online in the 2008-2010 period, I would caution investors not to disregard the strategic validity of the arguments and take an overly negative stance on the long-term viability of the theory. 

Clearly, the theory was debunked as it related to the developing world's ability to stand independent and shake off the near-term material negative consequences of a US-led recession. However, as the developing world is righted and the middle class continues to expand, domestic growth will inevitably provide the respective economies with autonomous engines of growth.

The "Decouplists" are gone but not forgotten.